QI Huaigao, “A Comparative Study of Policies on Joint Development of Oil and Gas Resources in the South China Sea between Vietnam and the Philippines,” South and Southeast Asian Studies, No. 1, 2024, pp. 53-74.

  Abstract: Vietnam and the Philippines are the main target countries for China to initiate the “promoting joint development while shelving differences” in the South China Sea (SCS). Vietnam has put forward its own version of the SCS joint development initiative named the Cooperation for Mutual Development (CFMD). China and Vietnam are now engaged in conducting joint development negotiations in the waters off the mouth of the Beibu Gulf. However, no substantive breakthrough has been achieved regarding the joint development of this area so far. China and the Philippines signed Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation on Oil and Gas Development (MOU) in 2018, establishing a “dual-layer structure” negotiation mechanism involving both government and corporate entities. Currently, the two countries are in discussions on how to advance offshore oil and gas development. A comparative study on the SCS joint development policies of Vietnam and the Philippines can help China engage in targeted joint development negotiations with Vietnam and the Philippines. The comparison of joint development policies between Vietnam and the Philippines can be approached from four aspects: core decision-making circles, public opinion, economic benefits, and the U.S. intervention. From the perspective of “core decision-making circles”, Vietnam’s decisions are made collectively by the Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee, resulting in a stronger policy continuity. In contrast, the decision-making process in the Philippines is significantly influenced by the presidents and their personal circle, leading to weaker policy continuity. From the perspective of “public opinion”, many citizens in both Vietnam and the Philippines harbor some doubts about the intention to engage in joint development with China, which negatively affects the prospects of joint development in the SCS between China, Vietnam, and the Philippines. From the perspective of “economic benefits”, both Vietnam and the Philippines have a high dependence on the oil and gas resources in the SCS and thus have economic interests in engaging in joint development with China. Regarding “the U.S. intervention”, increased intervention by the U.S. has had a negative impact on the joint development process among China, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

  Keywords: China, Vietnam, The Philippines, Joint Development, Core Decision-making Circle

  QI Huaigao is Professor and Vice Dean of Institute of International Studies, Fudan University.