Israeli tanks and armored vehicles line up the area outside the Druze village of Majdal Shams on the fence with the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights from the rest of Syria on December 9, 2024. Photo: AFP

The future of Syria should be decided by the Syrian people, the Chinese  Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Monday, adding that we  hope relevant parties will find a political settlement to restore  stability and order in Syria for the long-term and fundamental interest  of the Syrian people.

China  is closely following the situation in Syria, Mao said in response to a  question that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's ruling has ended and a  new government is about to be established and how China views the  current situation in Syria and whether it will establish contact with  the new government.

Armed  opposition forces took full control of Damascus on Sunday with the  swift collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's government. Russian state  media said on Sunday that Assad had landed in Moscow, and was granted  asylum along with his family, according to the Xinhua News Agency. 

The  decision to grant political asylum to Bashar al-Assad and his family  was made by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the press secretary of the  Russian leader, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters, Tass reported.

The  Kremlin said it is too early to determine the future of Russia's  military bases in Khmeimim and Tartus, Syria. Peskov stressed that  discussions about the bases will depend on the new leaders of Syria, RT  reported. 

Currently,  we are witnessing a period of transformation and extreme instability,  Peskov told journalists on Monday. He noted that the recent developments  in Syria have surprised the world, including Russia. It will take time  before we can engage in serious conversations with those who hold power.

The  UN Security Council planned to hold emergency closed consultations on  Syria later on Monday at Russia's request, the Associated Press  reported. It also noted that Syria's neighbors have stepped up security  along their borders. Lebanon said it was closing all but one of its land  border crossings with Syria. Jordan also closed a border crossing.

Israel  seized territory in Syrian-controlled areas of the Golan Heights, while  warning Syrians living in five villages close to the Israeli-occupied  portion of the area to stay home, Al Jazeera reported.

Speaking  at the White House on Sunday, US President Joe Biden called the end of  Assad's ruling in Syria a moment of risk and historic opportunity while  offering a blueprint for how the US plans to support the region. He also  announced the US had conducted dozens of airstrikes in Syria as it  remains committed to preventing the resurgence of ISIS, according to  CNN.

Hours  after opposition forces seized Damascus and declared an end to the rule  of Assad, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said at the Doha Forum  on Sunday that all minorities in Syria should be treated equally and it  is time to unite and reconstruct the country.
Who is the biggest benefactor?

Syria's  post-war political reconstruction is at a crossroads. Moreover,  tensions between Sunnis, Alawites, and Kurds could lead to a great  uncertainty to Syria's future political structure, Sun Degang, director  of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University, told the  Global Times on Monday.

Although  the opposition swiftly toppled the Assad government, establishing a  power structure that all parties can accept will be a formidable  challenge. In the future, they will face a prolonged and complex  negotiation process. Achieving consensus will require extensive dialogue  and maneuvering, influenced by the interventions of external powers,  Wen Shaobiao, an expert from the Shanghai International Studies  University, told the Global Times.

Syria  currently hosts several major factions, each with its own stronghold,  raising the possibility of de facto division, Ding Long, a professor  with the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies  University, told the Global Times.

The  forces led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which has advanced into  the capital and now control the Idlib region in western Syria, have  expanded their influence through the establishment of the Syrian  Salvation Government. The Syrian National Army, a force closely aligned  with Turkey, primarily operates in northwestern Syria and along the  Syria-Turkey border. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led  coalition of US-backed ethnic militias and rebel groups, is active in  northeastern Syria. And there's the Alawite community, which is loyal to  President Assad, said Ding. 

Apart  from the Alawite faction, which is likely to lose its political  influence, conflicts are highly probable between the other groups. In  particular, clashes between the Kurdish forces - viewed by Turkey as a  security threat - and the other factions are almost inevitable. Syria  may be heading toward a 'civil war 2.0,' with a strong likelihood of  triggering a new refugee crisis, said Ding. 

Many  believe that in the post-Assad era, Turkey, along with the HTS and the  Syrian National Army, will likely play a key role in reshaping Syria's  political landscape, said Ding. However, the ideological differences  between Turkey and the HTS are substantial, and their alliance is driven  by short-term interests. 

Moreover,  as Turkey's influence in Syria rises, Iran's influence in Syria and the  region has noticeably declined. The Iran-led Axis of Resistance has  been severed and is even at risk of disintegration, Ding said. 

On  the other hand, the US views Syria as a proxy battleground with several  main interests, including defeating ISIS, weakening Russia's influence,  and curbing Iran's political and military presence. Regardless of  whether the Trump or Biden administration is in power, the core  objective remains to prevent the rise of anti-American forces and the US  will not abandon its interests in Syria. Thus, it is likely to continue  influencing Syria's political process under the pretext of  counterterrorism, and promoting democratization in Syria, said Sun.

As  for Russia, Moscow is currently pursuing a strategy of strategic  withdrawal from Syria, but it will still seek to maintain influence in  the country's future political reconstruction, preventing any one nation  from monopolizing Syrian affairs, Sun noted. 
Spillover effect 

An  opposition leader in Syria's Idlib province has been tasked with  forming a new Syrian government, local media reported Monday. 
Muhammad  al-Bashir, born in 1983 and an electrical engineer and head of the  Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) in Idlib under the aegis of the Hayat  Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), will lead efforts to form a new cabinet following  the rapid fall of President Bashar al-Assad's government on Sunday,  online media outlet Sawt al-Asima reported.

The  Syria situation in the post-Assad era could spill over and create new  regional hotspots, exacerbating the Gaza crisis and the Iran issue, said  Sun. Israel may adopt even more hardline measures toward both Gaza and  Iran, which would further destabilize peace in the Middle East, Sun  noted. 

A  statement from Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz's office on Monday  confirmed Israel's capture of the Syrian side of the strategic high  point of Mt. Hermon. It also called for the completion of an Israeli  takeover of the buffer zone in the Golan Heights, and the creation of a  security zone in Syrian territory beyond it free of heavy strategic  weapons and terrorist infrastructures, CNN reported on Monday. 

It  is possible that the situation in Syria may worsen with it becoming a  battleground for great power competition, Sun said, noting that external  powers should not treat Syria as their backyard and it should not  become a theater for great power rivalry and division.

More  international efforts are being called on to provide humanitarian aid,  support post-war reconstruction, and push for internal reconciliation to  prevent Syria from plunging into a cycle of conflict, said Sun.