Editor's note: Jian Junbo, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is director of the Center for China-Europe Relations at Fudan University, Shanghai. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Looking back over the past three years, the Russia-Ukraine conflict – which may be resolved with the United States and Europe engaged in talks – has not only had a lasting impact on European security but has also changed security dynamics in various regions around the world.

It has exacerbated energy and food crises in regions like Europe and Asia, disrupted the development of the manufacturing sector in Europe, and fueled the rise of global protectionism. It has also sparked the emergence of stronger populist forces, heightened geopolitical competition among major powers and revived Cold War-era mentalities.

In short, the conflict has strongly shaken the international order that was collectively built by countries after World War II, particularly after the end of the Cold War. As a result, international relations have become more chaotic. However, from a long-term macro perspective, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a redistribution of global power. The relations among major powers are undergoing profound changes, and the Global South is becoming more united than ever before. This shift could potentially serve as a catalyst for the creation of a new international order.

Profound changes in the international security landscape

Russia launched its special military operation against Ukraine primarily in response to the security threat posed by NATO's eastward expansion, and it was regarded as the greatest regional security challenge for Europe since the end of the Cold War. Following the outbreak of the conflict, the interactions and escalating bilateral tensions between Russia and Europe set the security situation in the Eurasian region on a downward spiral.

Since the conflict began, Europe has consistently provided Ukraine with military and financial assistance. Formerly neutral countries like Sweden and Finland joined NATO, and defense capabilities across Europe were significantly strengthened. This includes the establishment of a special off-budget defense fund in Germany, as well as large increases in military spending and weapons upgrades in countries such as Poland and the Baltic states. As a result, trust in security between Russia and Europe has completely evaporated and the perceived security threat from each other has only grown.

The conflict has also influenced the security dynamics in other regions. South Korea and Japan, close security allies of the United States, have not only joined the Western alliance in supporting Ukraine against Russia but are also rethinking and adjusting their own defense strategies and capabilities. This includes growing discussions and interest in nuclear deterrence, as both countries are increasingly open to expanding their nuclear defense options. In addition, the war has led to changes in the security landscape in the Asia-Pacific region, with the Philippines strengthening its security relations with the United States.

But due to their support for Ukraine, both the U.S. and Europe have seen their ability to fully implement their Indo-Pacific strategies weakened, which has, to some extent, helped stabilize the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region.

Now, with U.S. President Donald Trump returning to the White House, there has been a rapid reversal of the Biden administration's policies towards Russia, leading to sharp shifts in the security landscape in Europe. If the U.S. were to cease its military support for Ukraine, Europe would face a difficult choice between continuing to support Ukraine or stopping its aid. Regardless of the choice, Europe would be confronted with even greater security pressures.

The impact on the global economy

The economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is global in nature, with Europe being the most severely affected. Following the outbreak of the conflict, Europe voluntarily reduced and cut off its energy imports from Russia, exacerbating the already dire energy crisis on the continent. This has dealt a heavy blow to Europe's economy which relies heavily on its manufacturing sector.

The region is now grappling with persistent inflation, labor shortages, reduced consumer spending, high debt and disruption in exports to some key markets. Overall, Europe's economic growth has been weak.

The energy shortage has also made Europe's push for green energy development less urgent as several European countries have slowed down their efforts toward carbon neutrality, with some even opposing more ambitious green development goals, such as the 2035 target to ban the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles.

On the other hand, Europe has been forced to place greater emphasis on the development and application of low-carbon technologies, products and renewable energy to meet future energy demands.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has also reshaped the global distribution of fossil fuel markets. As a result of European sanctions, Russia's oil and natural gas exports to Europe have largely shifted to Asia, with China and India emerging as the main consumers of Russian energy. Meanwhile, U.S. liquefied natural gas exports to Europe have surged, and countries with abundant oil and gas resources, such as Norway and those in North Africa, have also increased their exports to Europe.

The differing positions of China and Western countries regarding the conflict have prompted the U.S. and Europe to shift their strategies toward China, moving from the initial decoupling approach to a policy of de-risking in recent years. The U.S. government has introduced measures such as offshore balancing and friend-shoring, which encourage external investments to relocate away from China.

Similarly, Europe has been pushing for a detachment from Chinese industrial supply chains, especially in critical and sensitive sectors such as key raw materials, supposedly to protect European economic security. This shift has led to international capital flowing into emerging economies, with countries like Mexico, Vietnam, Thailand, and India seizing new opportunities for investment and trade. However, despite these shifts, the restructuring of global supply chains has not yet reached a dramatic scale.

It's clear that the restructuring of global supply chains under the de-risking strategy of the West is reshaping economic interactions between major powers. While globalization 1.0 has been dampened, the formation of new, more exclusive regional free trade agreements is on the rise. The connections between major powers, particularly China and the West, are being re-established through third-party nations acting as intermediaries, leading to the emergence of a new form of proxy globalization.

The reshaping of international political relations

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has triggered new changes in the relations between major powers. Among these, the relationship between Russia and Europe has been impacted most directly. Europe views Russia's special military operation as an act of aggression against Ukraine, a violation of both the UN Charter and its fundamental principles, and the biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War.

In response, Europe has imposed 16 rounds of sanctions on Russia, severing long-standing ties in various fields, seizing Russian assets in Europe and joining the U.S. in providing Ukraine with military and financial assistance worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Europe has also consistently supported Ukraine in multilateral international forums, while condemning Russia's actions.

China has maintained an objective and rational stance toward the conflict, to the strong dissatisfaction of the U.S., Europe and other Western countries. Some have repeatedly condemned China for its position and the EU has even included certain Chinese companies and individuals in the scope of sanctions against Russia.

The conflict has prompted the EU to adopt a de-risking policy in its economic and trade relations with China, which has severely damaged both the economic ties and the broader relations between China and the EU.

Shortly after the outbreak of the conflict, the U.S. and Europe deepened their bilateral cooperation in both security and economic areas, resulting in a stronger transatlantic relationship. Both implemented similar sanctions against Russia and provided aid to Ukraine, while also enhancing coordination in foreign policies on China, including the establishment of the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council. This body aims to strengthen cooperation in supply chain security and prevent technological leakage.

However, Trump's second presidential term threatens to fundamentally alter or even dismantle the transatlantic relationship. The Trump administration's approach, which excludes Europe from peace efforts and seeks to end the conflict through what Europe views as appeasement of Russia and pressure on Ukraine, would present the most serious challenge to transatlantic relations since the conflict began.

Particularly noteworthy is the apparent rise of the Global South. From the outset of the conflict, many countries in the non-Western world displayed positions that diverged from those of the West, catching the West off guard and highlighting that the Global South is not a mere follower of Western interests, but is emerging as a new political force on the international stage. Some countries in the Global South have made independent efforts to address the conflict, proposing constructive peace plans and actively mediating.

Thus, it is clear that the conflict has disrupted the inherent balance of international relations. As the relationships between major powers are restructured, the trend toward multipolarity has become more pronounced. This shift will create new opportunities for shaping a new international order.

The evolution of global shared ideologies

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has, to a large extent, reshaped the mainstream ideologies of the post-Cold War era. Geopolitical concepts that were once considered outdated or controversial have been revived in Europe and many other countries. Meanwhile, the ideals of economic globalization and liberal competition have been further undermined by a broad range of economic security measures and protectionist policies that the West has adopted in response to the conflict.

As a result, populism has spread across the world, especially in Western countries. The conflict has also challenged traditional centrist and establishment forces in Western countries, while simultaneously bolstering the far-right and conservative movements. The 2024 European Parliament election, the 2024 French National Assembly election and the 2025 German federal election reflect the far-right's rise across Europe, which will significantly shape the political landscape of the continent in the coming years.

The Biden administration categorized countries as either authoritarian or democratic, a move that led to the resurgence of Cold War-era thinking globally. However, those who oppose this categorization, particularly China, have helped temper the spread of this outdated worldview. Despite this, it's undeniable that Cold War thinking continues to be promoted in the West, albeit no longer in the strict binary terms of the authoritarian-democratic divide. Instead, it's being advanced through ideas like geopolitical rivalry and systemic adversaries.

The rapprochement between Trump and Russia, along with associated policies, has widened the gap between the U.S. and Europe in terms of values and worldview. For example, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance's criticism at the Munich Security Conference of Europe's drifting away from freedom and democracy, coupled with the rise of populism within the West, has contributed to a degree of ideological confusion within Western countries.

As a result, the the ideological foundations that prevailed in the post-World War II era, particularly after the Cold War, have weakened. The sense of trust that once underpinned economic cooperation and political dialogue based on principles of sovereignty, openness and liberalism is increasingly overshadowed by growing mistrust. Sadly, the conflict has not given birth to a new philosophical or ideological paradigm that could inspire a more harmonious and constructive international order.

Looking to the future, the international community in the post-Russia-Ukraine conflict era should return to the tradition of emphasizing sovereignty that was established after World War II, as well as to the liberal ideals of the post-Cold War era, rather than revert to the imperialistic mindset of the 19th century.

It is only by continuing to adhere to the principle of non-violence in resolving issues, while maintaining broad openness and cooperation to solve global crises, that the international community can reconstruct a better, more harmonious global order after weathering the current period of intense conflict and upheaval.