Qi Huaigao and Li Kaisheng, "Northeast Asia’s Shifting Power Structure and China’s Strategic Choices: Predictive Analysis for the 2020s", Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs, No. 4, 2023, pp. 1-24. [in Chinese]
Abstract: The Northeast Asian power structure demonstrates a weakening unipolarity of the U.S., which in the 2020s will evolve into a power structure with “multilateral co-opetition of two major powers (China and the U.S.) and three regional powers (Russia, Japan, and South Korea).” Strategic competition between China and the U.S. is the main feature of the shifting power structure in Northeast Asia, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict has limited influence on the shifting power structure. In the context of this shifting power structure, Japan, Russia, and ROK, which occupy the second tier of the Northeast Asian power structure, will pursue regional power diplomacy and regional interests. The DPRK and Mongolia, whose national power is relatively weak, occupy the third tier of the Northeast Asian power structure, and will seek to ensure the survival of their respective regimes and promote national security. China’s strategic choices for Northeast Asia in the next decade are likely to include five aspects: First, to avoid a “new Cold War” and achieve a strategic balance with the U.S.; Second, to maintain friendly and close strategic ties with Russia; Third, to actively promote economic cooperation with the other Northeast Asian countries; Fourth, to promote the establishment of a regional security mechanism in the future that includes all the Northeast Asian states; and Fifth, to construct a collective NEA identity.
Keywords: Northeast Asia; power structure; model of national power index of the NEA states; 2020s; China-U.S. strategic competition; strategic choices; predictive analysis
Biographies: Qi Huaigao, Professor and Vice Dean of Institute of International Studies at Fudan University; Li Kaisheng, Professor and Vice President of Shanghai Institutes for International Studies.
