邹志强、王晓宇：“AI Race in GCC States: Navigating Great-Powers Competition and Strategic Autonomy”, Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 21 October 2026.
https://doi.org/10.1080/25765949.2026.2748202
Abstract
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have become important actors in the global artificial intelligence (AI) race amid intensifying technological competition between the United States and China. This article develops a dual level analytical framework grounded in neoclassical realism to explain variation in GCC AI development strategies. At the systemic level, great power competition defines the external constraints and opportunities facing GCC states. At the unit level, strategic autonomy conditions how they respond to these pressures, while national development priorities, leadership preferences, resource mobilisation capacity, and technological capabilities influence the degree of such autonomy. The interaction between systemic pressures and varying degrees of strategic autonomy produces differentiated strategic responses, including relative alignment with the United States, hedging, and cautious engagement, which result in distinct AI development strategies and trajectories. The article further shows that greater strategic autonomy does not eliminate technological dependence, as GCC states remain significantly embedded in the US AI ecosystem.
Keywords:
AI race; GCC states; strategic autonomy; great-power competition; US–China technological competition
